"A crisis is an accelerated change"

The world is in a state of emergency. Since the Second World War, there has been no event that kept the entire world in suspense like the corona pandemic. The last comparable pandemic took place after the First World War in 1918. However, with digitization and globalization, today's situation is unique in its nature. In order to be able to make a meaningful statement about the effects of the crisis, a mere analysis of the economic indicators is not sufficient, since reality is an equation with an unknown number of variables. For this reason, an analogy to historical incidents is only possible to a limited extent. However, some data and analogies can help to create an overall picture in order to enable a probability analysis.

The first thing to know is the extent of the disease. It is noticeable that the number of Covid-19 diseases in industrialized nations seems to be significantly higher than in other countries. In all likelihood, this is because the number of tests used to identify this disease is very low in the rest of the world. Germany is a good example of large-scale tests carried out at an early stage. Because the curve of the increase in disease in Germany is steady, without jumps and edges. This also explains the relatively low number of deaths in Germany. It can be assumed that in most countries similarly, high proportions of the population are sick with Covid-19, even if they do not appear in the official case numbers. The approximate figures can be calculated at the end of the year using the statistics and mortality rates compared to the previous year and the mortality rate that was presumably very precisely determined up to that point. Until then, everything else is speculation. However, it is reasonable to assume that the number of those affected is at least in the seven-digit range. Under these conditions, a general analysis can now be attempted.

If you look at the first global SARS pandemic in 2003, the pandemic is likely to continue in an intensified or weakened form until mid-2021. Companies should therefore create a corona plan for the period up to next spring. In order to create this, customer behavior and motivations must be analyzed. These do not depend on the industry as it is a universal behavior. Humans have three fears that lead to three behavioral patterns.

It should be noted that all pandemics have two effects in common:

- Increased replacement of humans by technology
- Loss of reliance on elements of government and the state

We want to record these insights from history and analyze the current situation. To do this, we consider the global situation before the outbreak of the corona pandemic:

- Great boom in digitization.
- Electric vehicles and alternative energies
- The shift of technology to Asia
- Protectionism vs. Globalism

You don't need any special foresight to see the accelerating factor for digitization. The inevitable distance learning and remote meetings and the strong increase in online orders, even for food and the already steadily increasing automation of the production process, make a so-called remote-control society possible. The increasing awareness of the transferability of diseases will have a lasting impact on the desire for social distancing, which will also result in demand in the service sector. This gives the technology centers in the US and Asia a huge advantage. The US is also the largest exporter of services. The USA is also a self-sufficient country in the energy sector. The oil price, which is already too low and continues to fall, will cause problems for the fracking industry in the USA and thus reduce the influence of the USA on the world oil market. With a relatively young population and as a driver of digitization, the USA will probably survive the crisis with a few bruises.

Above all, the newly emerging economic zones are more adaptable and flexible and can adapt more quickly to changing circumstances and demands, which will lead to a faster recovery of the Asian economy and thus accelerate its rise.

The Corona crisis will probably not hit any region as hard as Europe, especially Germany. The main commercial goods of the FRG are vehicle parts and machines. Almost 70% of the total export is made to the eurozone. Even if the service sector represents around 70% of Germany's GDP, it accounts for around a quarter of total exports. This can result in an increased takeover of German companies by foreign investors. Even if the state tries to prevent this through stricter laws, it will only delay the takeover, at best slightly reduce it. Because the laws of the market always prevail. It is not government restrictions, but very sophisticated strategies that can counteract this trend. The FRG has introduced a very successful measure with short-time working and has guaranteed the highest level of government support in relation to the population. Europe and Germany have enough reserves to help them survive the crisis. However, it is vital for the German economy to maintain and expand the customer base. Under today's conditions, however, this outcome seems unlikely.

The corona pandemic in Africa is to be viewed differently than in Europe. There are certain conditions that put each other into perspective. On the one hand, there is poor medical care as well as inadequate measures and social distance. On the other hand, a high percentage of the young population and a high unemployment rate coupled with a high proportion of jobs with low qualifications in the labor market. In terms of the economy as a whole, therefore, there will probably be no major changes. In order to ensure the least amount of medical care for the population, the states will take up support and thus increase the influence of third parties. The race for the faded mining rights will be won by the states that can find their way back to themselves the quickest. The influence of third African countries with large populations and relatively stable economies, such as South Africa or Nigeria, will also increase locally. A similar scenario is likely to arise in South America.

For oil nations, the economic effects will arise depending on the agreement of the OPEC countries with Russia. A promotion race was the result of disagreements between Saudi Arabia and Russia. With the Corona crisis, demand fell sharply. If there is no drastic cutback in production soon, negative balance sheets in the national budget will threaten many national economies. For politically motivated reasons, however, is currently detect increased funding, which can have fatal consequences. Since a meteoric increase in the demand for crude oil can lead to rapid recovery after the crisis, it is important whether the damage caused is reversible or irreversible.

As the markets for Australia and Oceania will not only recover rapidly but will also see accelerated growth, a long-term economic impact of the pandemic is not expected

In summary, it can be said that overall welfare will decline due to the increased national debt. The East Asian economy will flourish, China's influence in Africa will increase, the US will have some problems but will ultimately recover. In Africa and South America, the prosperity of some nations will increase which will intensify the aspiration for a continental economic union. The BRICS countries will be among the clear winners of the pandemic. In percentage terms, Europe will never again achieve the share in the global economy before the Corona crisis. It will be a lasting loss which, coupled with the behavior of states during the crisis, will have many socio-political consequences. A return to a pre-Covid-19 EU looks unlikely.