"The industrial revolution of our time is digital. " - Andrus Ansip
There are two ways of looking at the digital revolution in relation to the industrial revolution. One is Industry 4.0. I.e. a continuation of Industry 1.0. It can also be viewed as an independent second great change that closes this chapter as a result of the first three Industrial Revolutions and begins with digitization 1.0. Both approaches have their justification and bring important insights with them. Industry 4.0 brings with it the trend towards greater automation of work processes and thus greater efficiency of the workforce. The digital revolution, however, is leading to the death of many professions and the emergence of many new ones. If precautions are not taken early on in the educational system, a steep rise in unemployment and unrest are possible consequences.
Like industrialization, the digital revolution will bring about profound and lasting upheavals in economic and social conditions. A change in the political landscape is also possible. We want to give a holistic picture of the revolutions and give you a lecture in the following in your societal one Effects.
First of all, the development of Industry 1.0 - 3.0 should shed light on the development of digitization. Even if there is no clear demarcation and different definitions of the individual phases of industrialization there, we want at this point a specific and short summary of industrialization and of technological progress during the respective stages:
Industry 1.0 - From agricultural to an industrial economy, increasing productivity through Factories, steam engine, steam power, use of trains, telegram
Industry 2.0 - First approaches to the automation of production, coal-fired power stations, electricity, mobility by means of otto and diesel engines and the commercialization of the automobile and beginnings of commercial passenger aviation, telephone
Industry 3.0 - Increased automation of the production process through the introduction of computers, nuclear power. Falling prices enable aviation for the population, cell phones.
As a result of the commercial advent of the computer, technology developed that enabled a whole new kind of communication, the Internet. The industrial revolution is leading to a digital revolution, so to speak, and around 200 years after its beginnings, it heralds a new era. By the millennium, the Internet was already accessible to a large part of the population. However, the widespread use of the Internet in everyday educational and professional life as well as the introduction of a completely new type of social contact, social media, can be seen as the beginning of the digital revolution. The most sensible dating seems to fall on 2010 with the proliferation of smartphones. A decade later, there is hardly a company or institution that no longer has an online presence. Social life is immensely shaped by the new technology. For so-called digital natives, a life without the Internet and a smartphone is inconceivable. The distance loses its meaning more and more. People can communicate unlimitedly at distances of thousands of kilometers at no additional cost, be it by writing, telephony or video telephony. It can be bought worldwide. Globalization is advancing at a tremendous speed.
Digitization 1.0 will be completed with the automation of the production process of most companies in the sense of DIN IEC 60050-351 as well as the online access of government services, i.e. the digitization of the offices. For Germany, the latter target should be achieved by 2022 according to the Online Access Act. Automation will take a little more time.
To look ahead from this point, it is helpful to look backward. As early as the early 19th century, at the beginning of Industry 1.0, forerunners of the modern computer were used by companies in production and corresponding forerunners of computer programs were developed. This applies to automobiles, aviation and many other technological developments. So to get an idea about digitization 2.0 and 3.0, nothing else needs to be done than to imagine already existing and promising technologies in a more mature and affordable state and to imagine the effects on the economy and society. In the further course, the trend towards higher automation in production, including automation in everyday life, such as autonomous driving and smart homes, will increase significantly. Of course, a more sophisticated human-machine interface will contribute to improved communication with computers and thus to significantly easier operation. The further increase in capacity for traffic will also create many opportunities.
Under these conditions, the anonymity of the Internet will continue to be abolished and will probably result in an internationally valid online ID. (Companies active in the IT sector would do well to develop a supply for the emerging demand.) The increasing traffic and the resulting mentality will have a diminishing impact on travel, as it can in some cases be replaced. Not just meetings, but on-site visits to shops, shopping, and even vacations will in some cases be replaced by virtual alternatives. What was considered science fiction until recently is already in use today, such as the so-called robot hotel in Japan. If we do not regard these products as the final version, but only as the first version of a future vision such as the computers in the 18th century, the application possibilities of the already existing technology become visible.
The greatest uncertainty in making forecasts is the provision of energy through nuclear fusion. Three very expensive nuclear fusion reactors have been in the development phase for many years. Two tokamaks and a stellarator are located on European soil with the participation of many nations worldwide. So far, however, no way has been found to stabilize the reactions to disruptive effects. A prognosis as to whether this will ever succeed is unfortunately not possible in the current situation. The success of nuclear fusion reactors would provide mankind with almost unlimited amounts of energy and the use of environmentally harmful fossil fuels would be a thing of the past. Electromobility and many other possibilities would experience a relevant acceleration.
A little stimulation of the imagination for life at the beginning of digitization 2.0:
Living in smart homes, in which even the contents of the refrigerator are digitally recorded and an automatic shopping list is created. All household information is stored in the home's own database, to which a kind of "home organizer" has access and automatically creates orders for food and other items as well as pending repairs and maintenance. Of course, you also have manual access to all this data via smartphone, which will probably be called differently because of their now essential and extensive functions, e.g. Smartlife. These also control the vehicles, which is why there will be no more parking problems. Digitized parking spaces ensure that an autonomously driving car drives to a reserved space after the passengers have been released. Transporting people by drone could also become affordable for the population. There are already first approaches. Payments are of course made automatically. Shopping streets and centers are equipped with 360-degree cameras as standard, which can be accessed live from all computers worldwide due to the large data transfer options. So someone can go shopping in a mall while sitting at home. The purchased goods are automatically collected from a warehouse that is closest to the customer and delivered to a suitable location by drone. In this way, someone can go shopping in all the shopping streets and centers of the world from their living room. Of course, the availability of the goods in the region would be additional information that would have to be given. Shortened production processes e.g. 3D printers could enable just-in-time production in order to save storage space. So-called cyber-psychic systems can regulate the entire supply-demand process.
This is only a small suggestion, a small excerpt from a possible future that may be less than a quarter of a century away.
The lack of exercise and the elimination of the need for interpersonal interaction will increasingly result in community fitness offers that will take on completely new forms, especially in the outdoor area. This will shape social life. Due to the increased possibility of digital data acquisition, especially in the health sector, health insurance companies will have a very strong influence on the lives of individuals.
The political upheavals will also be serious. Just as the industrial revolution resulted in political restructuring, so that the monarch was replaced by elected representatives and the nobility by industrialists and bankers, governments are in part replaced by institutions and organizations, borders by trade agreements, and heads of state by representatives of these organizations. Even if national identity is still present in many places around the world, especially among the elderly, it steadily disappears with decreasing age. Given these prerequisites, the transfer of the monopoly of power by governments to international organizations whose guidelines are determined by the laws of the free market economy does not seem improbable. The trend towards strong personalities as heads of state, who, in addition to a nationalistic note, resemble a general rather than a politician in their actions and who are more monarch than a diplomat, seems to be a reaction to this development. A look at history reveals that unexpected and not unpredictable developments can result. A lack of workers 'rights led to exploitation, which attracted workers' movements, especially the teachings of Marx. In addition to the emergence of communism, the Soviet Union, communist China, fascism were also a consequence of the industrial revolution. Even if the chain of causality is visible and plausible in retrospect, a corresponding prognosis was hardly possible at the beginning of the industrial revolution. And even if we learn from history and actively steer against certain developments, we cannot see what effects this will have.
In summary, it can be said that many companies will lose their right to exist and many new companies will emerge. In times of such intense change and restructuring, it is necessary to adopt a professionally developed strategy in order not to fall by the wayside. Like any upheaval, it brings valuable opportunities and new giants will grow. If you don't just watch, but want to actively participate in the change, contact me and let's see together which adjustments to your business are necessary and which new investment opportunities may arise for you.